"It’s frightening to think you might not know something, but more frightening to think that, by and large, the world is run by people who have faith that they know exactly what’s going on." By Amos Tversky
There are two kinds of people in the investing world, one who think that by forecasting a few events make them feel that they know everything and the ones who know what they don’t know. Most of the investors belong to the category of people who say I know everything while a very few people belong to the ones who say I don’t know.
If you look at the current scenario, the ones who knows everything actually failed to know about what the pandemic could cost them as they were busy enjoying the highs, the markets were making while the ones who didn’t know about the uncertainty simply kept telling other people that they don’t know what’s next.
Forecasting is very tricky. Just a few right forecasts by large number of people make other un-knowledgeable people fall under it. People predict a future with related to the recent past. The current crisis is one such example wherein people are comparing it with the 2008 and 2000 crisis. Is the current crisis worse than that? Has the markets already experienced the bottom? Well I don’t know, maybe someone else might know…
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